Manchester United vs Arsenal Kids Let’s make it happen 2011

Today is a massive game, a game if we win would be absolutely amazing – but a win is looking unlikely, simply because of the great degree of personnel unavailable… Not to be negative, but away at Old Trafford with our best team ever is hard, so with the likes of Miquel, Jenkinson and Coquelin all brought into the first team squad, we’re obviously very young…

As a quick reminder, Alex Song, Emmanuel Frimpong and Gervinho are all suspended for this game, whilst at least one centre back, most likely Vermaelen will also miss the game, and perhaps another in Djourou too

It’s Howard Webb again… you remember him; he’s the one that made a bit of a tit of himself in the World Cup final… not that anyone really cares about the world cup anymore – they should rename it to the ‘Coca Cola Cup’ I reckon – more apt init and they would coin it in on the naming rights.

So let’s refocus our lens on Webby and come a little closer to home and, before we crunch the numbers and scrape the stat barrel, look at the games he’s had between Arsenal and Manchester United in the EPL in the extra wee table I’ve knocked up for you:

Home			Away	Date	HT Fouls	AT Fouls	HT Yel	AT Yel	HT Red	AT Red
Manchester United	1	0	Arsenal	13/12/2010 (20:00)	7	16	0	4	0	0
Arsenal	2	1	Manchester United	08/11/2008 (12:45)	16	7	3	2	0	0
Manchester United	2	1	Arsenal	13/04/2008 (16:00)	12	7	2	6	0	0
Arsenal	2	2	Manchester United	03/11/2007 (12:45)	15	15	1	2	0	0

Cor, look at that on the 13/04/2008 – we made 7 fouls and got 6 yellow cards and a fine for ‘failing to control our players’ (i.e. we should have just laid down and ‘crumbled’ with ‘fragility’ when faced with the mighty red devils – due to a lack of ‘English spine’ just like the EPL script said)… they [Manchester United] made 12 ‘official’ fouls that day but memory seems to serve that they kicked the living shit out of us.

Any more happy memories of Mr. Webb from these matches, then please feel free to document them in the comments below; personally, for me – it’s quite difficult not to spin off into a filthy torrent of abuse, aspersion casting and foul language. No reds though… yet – but a penalty for Manchester United in every match.

Let’s check out his stats!

Howard Webb has had 26 games for Manchester United consisting of 17 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses.

Manchester United are currently in 1st in Howard Webb’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an average of 2.08 PPG.

In Howard Webb’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Manchester United come 8th with an average positive swing of 0.25.

Manchester United are currently in 18th in Howard Webb’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an overall average of 2.04 BPM.

In Howard Webb’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Manchester United come 20th with an overall average of 5.77 FPB.

What strikes me here is the number of games Howard Webb gets for Manchester United – if the referees were randomised against matches then this seems statistically unlikely – also statistically unlikely is the number of games Howard Webb has refereed between Arsenal and Manchester United. Do we believe in coincidences?

Also we can see that his swing against the handicap looks about right at 0.25, we should think about that in terms of his overall [seasons] PPG figures in which the Mancs come a clear first and their nearest rivals (in the EPL) being Liverpool with an overall average of 1.64.

So we see – that Manchester United seem about right from Howard Webb’s figures (given they are a good side) but, coincidentally, the other ‘good sides’ (i.e. Manchester United’s competition) doing rather less well in terms of both their performance against the handicap and their PPG figures.

Howard Webb has had 21 games for Arsenal consisting of 8 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses.

Arsenal are currently in 10th in Howard Webb’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an average of 1.52 PPG.

In Howard Webb’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Arsenal come 15th with an average negative swing of -0.09.

Arsenal are currently in 21st in Howard Webb’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an overall average of 2.38 BPM.

In Howard Webb’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Arsenal come 22nd with an overall average of 5.44 FPB.

The main thing that grabs my attention from the chart is the FPB figures in which Howard Webb seems to consistently punish Arsenal quite harshly in the challenge against their competition – this evens out in 2009/2010… but it’s then resumed to the trend immediately following the FIFA World Cup. This is what I call the Howard Webb ‘Pinch’ in that Webby’s stats, in the season immediately preceding him being picked as FIFA’s top enforcer of policy, his statistics seemed to almost find a perfect ‘normality’ before pinging back on track the following season.

This would suggest to me that Howard Webb is a referee who is aware of his statistics and is very careful in how he is perceived in terms of the ‘trail of evidence’ he leaves behind him; those years in the police force have paid off it seems?

The figures for Manchester United (above) also seem to point to this; that is if we take into account the anecdotal evidence of a nation of football fans who will swear blind that Howard Webb is a Manc through and through.

Let’s move on now to check out how Howard Webb performs against selected teams in the EPL:

Ahh – and there we see it again, the Howard Webb ‘Pinch’, and this time it’s in the AHS!

What strikes me here is the steady decline of Chelsea in conjunction with the meteoric rise of Manchester City. Arsenal and Liverpool both spiked against the trend in the 2006/2007 season and Arsenal have shown a steady climb out of the gutter. Manchester United looks to perform pretty normally against the handicap.

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